Andre Ilagan vs Sebastian Gorzny — Lexington Quarter-final

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
USAALT
Andre Ilagan
#210ATP
1543ELO
1518Hard ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM 1 · 2nd on
USA
Sebastian Gorzny
#782ATP
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWLLW
Ilagan A.
7-6 6-4
Gorzny S.
Ilagan A.
762
Gorzny S.
640

Andre Ilagan advanced to the semifinals of the Lexington tournament, defeating Sebastian Gorzny 7-6, 6-4. Ilagan hit 2 aces and 2 double faults, winning 68% of his first serves and converting 33% of break points. Gorzny had 10 aces, 2 double faults, 59% first-serve win percentage, and 100% break point conversion, but was only able to break Ilagan's serve once.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Ilagan A.Gorzny S.
1st serve in·
67%
—
1st serve points won·
68%
—
2nd serve points won·
52%
—
Service points won·
63%
—
Return points won·
39%
—
Break points saved·
67%
—
Aces / match·
4.2
—
Double faults / match·
2.1
—

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Ilagan A.75%
Gorzny S.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ilagan A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ilagan A.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Gorzny S.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.35 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.65 of last 8 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
5.6Won 60% in Usa (47)
Country comfort
5.7Won 61% in Usa (46)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Ilagan A.Gorzny S.
Freshness·Dominant
61
95

Ilagan A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Gorzny S.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw