Rei Sakamoto vs Edas ButvilasLexington Quarter-final

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#165ATP
1608ELO
1589Hard ELO
$235kYTD
$494kCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWLWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM 2 · 1st on
#204ATP
1544ELO
1499Hard ELO
22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLLL
Sakamoto R.
6-7 6-3 5-7
Butvilas E.
Sakamoto R.
6651
Butvilas E.
7372

Edas Butvilas defeated Rei Sakamoto in the quarterfinals of the Lexington hard-court tournament, winning 7-6, 3-6, 7-5. Butvilas hit 10 aces and 3 double faults, while Sakamoto had 7 aces and 5 double faults. Both players converted 67% and 100% of break points respectively, and each secured 4 service breaks.

Key context

  • Match story: Edas Butvilas closed it out in three sets, 7–6 3–6 7–5.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-06-01M25 La Nucia 1SFclayEdas Butvilas7-6(6) 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.5
5.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.0
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
49
21
Break points saved·Even
87
85
Break points won·Even
8
4
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
15
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
23
43

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Sakamoto R.61%
Butvilas E.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sakamoto R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.1+90 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1499
5.8Overall Elo 1608
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1544
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.85 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
5.2Won 54% in Usa (26)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
65
76

Sakamoto R.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 95 games (7d) · Butvilas E.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw