Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo ArnaldiMontreal Round of 32

Montreal · ATP · Round of 32
#56ATP
1789ELO
1777Hard ELO
$970kYTD
$8.1MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLLWWW
Griekspoor T.
3-6 6-4 6-3
Arnaldi M.
Griekspoor T.
3662
Arnaldi M.
6431

Tallon Griekspoor defeated Matteo Arnaldi in the Round of 32 of the Montreal hard-court tournament. Griekspoor won 3-6, 6-4, 6-3. Griekspoor had 4 aces and 5 double faults, while Arnaldi had 10 aces and 4 double faults.

Around the match

  • This is probably one of the most special ones I've had. I've been having a very tough season on court, which was not easy at many times – being very close to throwing the towel a couple of times.

    Griekspoor T.tennismajors.com

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-26Roland GarrosR128clayMatteo Arnaldi3-6 3-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
49%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
31%
39%
Break points saved·Even
63%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.8
5.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.3
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
62
54
Break points saved·Even
98
95
Break points won·Clear edge
9
22
Deciding sets·Dominant
89
58
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Griekspoor T.54%
Arnaldi M.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+44 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1732
4.5Overall Elo 1789
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1830
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.03 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
88
77

Griekspoor T.: 9 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 76%

Draw