Jessica Pegula vs Kamilla RakhimovaToronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
#83WTA
1693ELO
1671Hard ELO
24 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWLLW
Pegula J.
6-4 6-0
Rakhimova K.
Pegula J.
662
Rakhimova K.
400

Jessica Pegula defeated Kamilla Rakhimova in the Round of 32 of the Toronto tournament, winning 6-4, 6-0 on hard courts. Pegula hit one ace and two double faults, winning 66 percent of her first serves and converting all of her break points. She earned six service breaks to Rakhimova's two, advancing in the competition.

Around the match

  • I was just happy with the way I was able to mentally stay in there today. It was more of a mental battle for me figuring out what to do and not get too frustrated.

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis
  • Filipino fans are insane. We were getting like 4,000 or 5,000 more subscribers after that match. It's pretty cool that it's crossed over.

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
55%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Even
57%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
5.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
93
8
Break points saved·Dominant
86
7
Break points won·Clear edge
99
77
Deciding sets·Dominant
99
15
Tiebreaks·Dominant
91
2

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Pegula J.87%
Rakhimova K.13%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Pegula J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.8+387 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.2Hard Elo 1671
10.0Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1693
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.78 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
64
84

Pegula J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d) · Rakhimova K.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw