Valentin Royer vs Tommy PaulMontreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
#78ATP
1641ELO
1585Hard ELO
$521kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLWWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 5th on
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLLWWLL
Royer V.
4-6 6-7
Paul T.
Royer V.
4650
Paul T.
6772

Tommy Paul defeated Valentin Royer in the Round of 64 at the Montreal tournament, winning 6-4, 7-6 on hard courts. Paul served 7 aces and committed 4 double faults, converting 40% of break points and winning 73% of first-serve points. Royer had 4 aces and 7 double faults, converting 11% of break points and winning 70% of first-serve points; he secured 1 service break to Paul's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
68%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.5
6.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
90
Break points saved·Even
94
97
Break points won·Dominant
30
88
Deciding sets·Clear edge
76
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
62
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Royer V.20%
Paul T.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Paul T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.3Hard Elo 1585
Surface ELO
8.7+296 Hard Elo edge
1.2Overall Elo 1641
ELO gap
8.8Overall Elo 1948
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.63 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
64
51

Royer V.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d) · Paul T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 93 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw