Anna Kalinskaya vs Diana ShnaiderToronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
#21WTA
1907ELO
1863Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$7.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
#14WTA
1891ELO
1833Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.3MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWWLW
Kalinskaya A.
3-6 3-6
Shnaider D.
Kalinskaya A.
330
Shnaider D.
662

Diana Shnaider defeated Anna Kalinskaya in the Round of 32 of the Toronto tournament, winning 6-3, 6-3 on hard courts. Shnaider served 3 aces and committed 1 double fault, while Kalinskaya had 4 aces and 5 double faults. Shnaider converted 50% of her break points and won 5 service breaks to Kalinskaya's 2.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-20TokyoR16hardAnna Kalinskaya7-6 2-6 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
51%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.1
1.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
75
82
Break points saved·Dominant
38
63
Break points won·Even
96
98
Deciding sets·Even
92
89
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
99
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Kalinskaya A.46%
Shnaider D.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+30 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1833
5.2Overall Elo 1907
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1891
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
70
71

Kalinskaya A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Shnaider D.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 73%

Draw