Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Maks KasnikowskiGrodzisk Mazowiecki Round of 16

Grodzisk Mazowiecki · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#354ATP
1303ELO
1237Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
#234ATP
1400ELO
1369Hard ELO
23 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWLLWW
Marrero Curbelo I.
2-6 7-6 6-1
Kasnikowski M.
Marrero Curbelo I.
2762
Kasnikowski M.
6611

Ivan Marrero Curbelo defeated Maks Kasnikowski in the Round of 16 at the Grodzisk Mazowiecki hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 2-6, 7-6, 6-1 in favor of Marrero Curbelo. He converted 83% of his break points and secured 5 service breaks to Kasnikowski's 4.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
66%
Return points won·Even
43%
40%
Break points saved·Even
59%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.8
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Marrero Curbelo I.24%
Kasnikowski M.76%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kasnikowski M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.4Hard Elo 1237
Surface ELO
6.6+132 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1302
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1400
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.17 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
72
97

Marrero Curbelo I.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Kasnikowski M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
28°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 76%

Draw