Clement Chidekh vs Naoki Nakagawa — M25 Southaven Round of 32

M25 Southaven · ITF · Round of 32
FRA1
Clement Chidekh
#205ATP
1513ELO
1523Hard ELO
$92kYTD
$401kCAREER
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 6 August 2026 ·
hard
JPN
Naoki Nakagawa
#745ATP
1289ELO
1271Hard ELO
29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLLW
Chidekh C.
5-7 7-5 6-3
Nakagawa N.
Chidekh C.
5762
Nakagawa N.
7531

Clement Chidekh defeated Naoki Nakagawa in the Round of 32 at the M25 Southaven tournament. Chidekh won the match 5-7, 7-5, 6-3. Key stats included Chidekh's 61% first-serve win percentage and 70% break point conversion rate, compared to Nakagawa's 53% and 50%, respectively.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Chidekh C.Nakagawa N.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
56%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
70%
82%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
68%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Even
61%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.4
11.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.0
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Chidekh C.Nakagawa N.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
32
3
Break points saved·Dominant
83
57
Break points won·Slight edge
9
1
Deciding sets·Dominant
59
12
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
12
17

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Chidekh C.83%
Nakagawa N.17%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Chidekh C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Chidekh C.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Nakagawa N.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.2+252 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.8Hard Elo 1271
7.8Overall Elo 1513
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 1289
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
5.9Won 65% in Usa (34)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Chidekh C.Nakagawa N.
Freshness·
78
—

Chidekh C.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
33°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw