Ugo Humbert vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64

FRA24

Ugo Humbert

#30ATP

1868ELO

1843Hard ELO

$1.2MYTD

$12MCAREER

28 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWLLWWWWL

0 — 2

Sets

Thursday, 6 August 2026 · 18:55

hard

Court 4 · 5th on

ESP

Daniel Merida Aguilar

#40ATP

1744ELO

1676Hard ELO

21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWLWWWLWW

Humbert U.

3-6 3-6

Merida Aguilar D.

Humbert U.

330

Merida Aguilar D.

662

Daniel Merida Aguilar defeated Ugo Humbert in the Round of 64 of the Montreal hard-court tournament. The match ended in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3 in favor of Merida Aguilar.

Key context

Match story: Daniel Merida Aguilar dropped just 6 games past Ugo Humbert.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Humbert U.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Merida Aguilar D.

Merida Aguilar D.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Humbert U.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Humbert U.Merida Aguilar D.

Serve

—

Return

—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Humbert U.Merida Aguilar D.

1st serve in·Slight edge

59%

67%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

76%

66%

2nd serve points won·Even

54%

50%

Service points won·Slight edge

67%

61%

Return points won·Slight edge

35%

41%

Break points saved·Slight edge

67%

56%

Aces / match·Dominant

7.2

2.3

Double faults / match·Slight edge

3.2

2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Humbert U.Merida Aguilar D.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC

Humbert U.65%

Merida Aguilar D.35%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Humbert U. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Humbert U.

6.6

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Merida Aguilar D.

4.9

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

7.1+168 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.9Hard Elo 1676

6.6Overall Elo 1868

ELO gap

3.4Overall Elo 1744

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.05 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.86 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Humbert U.Merida Aguilar D.

Freshness·Clear edge

Humbert U.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Merida Aguilar D.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather

27°CClear

Wind 5 km/hHumidity 59%

Ugo Humbert vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Montreal Round of 64

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard

Statistics

Clutch

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard