Maxim Mrva vs Guy Den Ouden — Hagen Round of 16

Hagen · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
CZEQ
Maxim Mrva
#309ATP
1500ELO
1447Clay ELO
19 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
clay
Court 3 · 2nd on
NED
Guy Den Ouden
#215ATP
1495ELO
1484Clay ELO
$84kYTD
$332kCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWLW
Mrva M.
4-6 2-6
Den Ouden G.
Mrva M.
420
Den Ouden G.
662

Guy Den Ouden defeated Maxim Mrva 6-4, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the Hagen tournament on clay. Den Ouden hit 3 aces and 4 double faults, winning 75% of his first serves and converting 83% of his break points. He secured 5 service breaks to Mrva's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Mrva M.Den Ouden G.
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
45%
Service points won·Even
56%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
37%
Break points saved·Even
51%
47%
Aces / match·Even
2.6
2.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.6
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Mrva M.12%
Den Ouden G.88%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Den Ouden G. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mrva M.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Den Ouden G.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.25 of last 9 on clay
Surface form
7.98 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mrva M.Den Ouden G.
Freshness·Dominant
55
97

Mrva M.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 102 games (7d) · Den Ouden G.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw