Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet — Montreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64

ESP20

Rafael Jodar

#11ATP

1999ELO

1873Hard ELO

$1.6MYTD

$1.9MCAREER

19 yrs · 191 cm

Last 10 · pre-match

WWLWWWLWWW

2 — 1

Sets

Wednesday, 5 August 2026 · 15:35

hard

COURT 2 · 3rd on

FRA

Corentin Moutet

#60ATP

1745ELO

1727Hard ELO

$739kYTD

$6.4MCAREER

27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLLLLLLWLL

Jodar R.

4-6 6-1 6-3

Moutet C.

Jodar R.

4662

Moutet C.

6131

Rafael Jodar defeated Corentin Moutet in the Round of 64 at the Montreal tournament, coming back from a set down to win 4-6, 6-1, 6-3. Jodar converted 86% of his break points and won six service breaks to Moutet's three. Jodar hit one ace and six double faults, compared to Moutet's four aces and two double faults.

Key context

Match story: Rafael Jodar dropped the opening set before beating Corentin Moutet 4–6 6–1 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Jodar R.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Moutet C.

Moutet C.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Jodar R.

Serve advantage — Jodar R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Jodar R.Moutet C.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Jodar R.Moutet C.

1st serve in·Even

64%

65%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

71%

66%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

54%

48%

Service points won·Slight edge

65%

60%

Return points won·Even

41%

40%

Break points saved·Slight edge

62%

56%

Aces / match·Slight edge

4.5

3.1

Double faults / match·Clear edge

1.8

2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Jodar R.Moutet C.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Clear edge

100

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC

Jodar R.75%

Moutet C.25%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jodar R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Jodar R.

7.2

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Moutet C.

4.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

6.8+146 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.2Hard Elo 1727

8.2Overall Elo 1999

ELO gap

1.8Overall Elo 1745

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.78 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

4.44 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Jodar R.Moutet C.

Freshness·Dominant

Jodar R.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d) · Moutet C.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather

28°CClear

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 48%

Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet — Montreal Round of 64

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard

Statistics

Clutch

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard