Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Tabilo — Montreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
Hubert Hurkacz
POLPR
Hubert Hurkacz
#69ATP
1798ELO
1727Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 4 · 3rd on
Alejandro Tabilo
CHI25
Alejandro Tabilo
#29ATP
1819ELO
1750Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
29 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLLW
Hurkacz H.
6-4 7-6
Tabilo A.
Hurkacz H.
672
Tabilo A.
460

Hubert Hurkacz defeated Alejandro Tabilo in the Round of 64 of the Montreal tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 7-6 in favor of Hurkacz. Key stats included Hurkacz's 14 aces and 79% first-serve win percentage, compared to Tabilo's 4 aces and 67% first-serve win percentage.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Hurkacz H.Tabilo A.
1st serve in·Even
63%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
79%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
69%
67%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
14.6
6.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Hurkacz H.Tabilo A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
67
37
Break points saved·Slight edge
99
93
Break points won·Slight edge
16
22
Deciding sets·Dominant
92
65
Tiebreaks·Dominant
95
8

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Hurkacz H.54%
Tabilo A.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Hurkacz H.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Tabilo A.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1726
Surface ELO
5.3+23 Hard Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1798
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1819
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.22 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Hurkacz H.Tabilo A.
Freshness·Slight edge
69
80

Hurkacz H.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Tabilo A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
28°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw