Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao FonsecaMontreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
#49ATP
1833ELO
1803Hard ELO
$1000kYTD
$38MCAREER
28 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#26ATP
1928ELO
1914Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$3.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWW
Tsitsipas S.
6-7 5-7
Fonseca J.
Tsitsipas S.
6350
Fonseca J.
7772

Joao Fonseca defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Round of 64 at the Montreal tournament, winning 7-6, 7-5 on hard courts. Fonseca hit 8 aces and 2 double faults, while Tsitsipas hit 7 aces and 4 double faults. Fonseca converted all 3 of his break points, while Tsitsipas converted 2 of 5.

Around the match

  • I think Joao from last year would've lost his mind. I'm a more mature Joao now. Mental strength is one of my biggest weapons.

  • It's been a couple weeks without playing, so I knew, serving for the match, I would be a little bit more tense.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-09-13Davis Cup WG1 R1: GRE vs BRARRhardJoao Fonseca6-4 3-6 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
57%
Service points won·Even
69%
66%
Return points won·Even
34%
36%
Break points saved·Even
68%
68%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.9
5.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
89
66
Break points saved·Even
99
95
Break points won·Dominant
71
24
Deciding sets·Slight edge
98
90
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
96
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Tsitsipas S.45%
Fonseca J.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 1802
Surface ELO
6.4+111 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1833
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1928
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.55 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
77
80

Tsitsipas S.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Fonseca J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 73%

Draw