Raphael Collignon vs Alexei PopyrinMontreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
#38ATP
1894ELO
1837Hard ELO
$642kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWWLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 3rd on
#128ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$573kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLLLLL
Collignon R.
4-6 3-6
Popyrin A.
Collignon R.
430
Popyrin A.
662

Alexei Popyrin defeated Raphael Collignon in the Round of 64 of the Montreal hard-court tournament, 6-4, 6-3. Popyrin hit 10 aces and converted 33% of his break points, while Collignon was 0-for on break points. Popyrin won 84% of his first-serve points and secured three service breaks to advance.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-16HalleR32grassRaphael Collignon4-6 2-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
78%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
54%
Service points won·Even
68%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
31%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.2
10.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
73
49
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
97
Break points won·Dominant
55
1
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
68
Tiebreaks·Even
92
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Collignon R.60%
Popyrin A.40%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Collignon R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.0+156 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1680
6.9Overall Elo 1894
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1741
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.87 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.44 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
91
88

Collignon R.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Popyrin A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
28°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw