Casper Ruud vs Juan Manuel CerundoloMontreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
#17ATP
1983ELO
1889Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLLLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 2nd on
#51ATP
1790ELO
1658Hard ELO
$779kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWWL
Ruud C.
6-1 6-2
Cerundolo J.
Ruud C.
662
Cerundolo J.
120

Casper Ruud defeated Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Round of 64 at the Montreal tournament, winning 6-1, 6-2 on hard courts. Ruud hit 2 aces and 5 double faults, while converting 80% of his break points and winning 82% of his first-serve points. Cerundolo was unable to capitalize on his 3 double faults, converting 0% of his break points and securing 0 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-17GstaadQFclayJuan Manuel Cerundolo3-6 7-5 6-2
2025-07-14GstaadQFclayJuan Manuel Cerundolo6-2 1-6 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
70%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.6
5.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
88
76
Break points saved·Clear edge
99
80
Break points won·Even
74
71
Deciding sets·Even
99
95
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
96
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Ruud C.74%
Cerundolo J.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ruud C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.9+231 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Hard Elo 1658
7.4Overall Elo 1983
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1790
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
88
69

Ruud C.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Cerundolo J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw