Alex Michelsen vs Francisco CerundoloMontreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
#41ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
$797kYTD
$4.7MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 4 · 4th on
#25ATP
1931ELO
1880Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$11MCAREER
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWWW
Michelsen A.
6-3 6-4
Cerundolo F.
Michelsen A.
662
Cerundolo F.
340

Alex Michelsen defeated Francisco Cerundolo in the Round of 64 at the Montreal tournament, winning 6-3, 6-4 on hard courts. Michelsen hit 3 aces and 3 double faults, while converting 33% of break points and securing 2 service breaks. Cerundolo had 6 aces, 1 double fault, and a 78% first-serve win percentage but was 0-for on break points.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-20ViennaR32hardFrancisco Cerundolo6-3 6-1
2025-06-16HalleR32grassAlex Michelsen2-6 7-5 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
37%
41%
Break points saved·Even
63%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
3.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
62
87
Break points saved·Even
92
95
Break points won·Dominant
32
89
Deciding sets·Slight edge
80
87
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
83
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Michelsen A.57%
Cerundolo F.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1810
Surface ELO
5.9+70 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1931
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
8.69 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
80
89

Michelsen A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d) · Cerundolo F.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
28°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw