Zizou Bergs vs Sebastian Baez — Montreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
Zizou Bergs
BEL31
Zizou Bergs
#33ATP
1808ELO
1757Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$4.1MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 4 · 1st on
Sebastian Baez
ARG
Sebastian Baez
#53ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
Bergs Z.
3-6 6-3 6-2
Baez S.
Bergs Z.
3662
Baez S.
6321

Zizou Bergs defeated Sebastian Baez in the Round of 64 at the Montreal tournament, prevailing 3-6, 6-3, 6-2. Bergs hit 7 aces to Baez's 1 and won 81% of his first-serve points, compared to Baez's 59%. Bergs converted 33% of his break points and won 4 service breaks to Baez's 2.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-10-14AntwerpR16hardZizou Bergs6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
Bergs Z.Baez S.
1st serve in·Clear edge
58%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.8
1.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.5
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Bergs Z.Baez S.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
56
73
Break points saved·Even
89
86
Break points won·Dominant
11
77
Deciding sets·Even
90
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
75
53

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Bergs Z.68%
Baez S.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bergs Z. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bergs Z.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Baez S.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.6+48 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1709
5.6Overall Elo 1808
ELO gap
4.4Overall Elo 1759
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
3.13 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Bergs Z.Baez S.
Freshness·Slight edge
88
78

Bergs Z.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Baez S.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 73%

Draw