Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo ArnaldiMontreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
#63ATP
1784ELO
1747Hard ELO
$765kYTD
$4.6MCAREER
26 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 5 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 4th on
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLLWWW
Marozsan F.
5-7 6-2 4-6
Arnaldi M.
Marozsan F.
5641
Arnaldi M.
7262

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Fabian Marozsan in the Round of 64 at the Montreal tournament, winning 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 on hard courts. Arnaldi hit 5 aces and 7 double faults, winning 78% of first-serve points and converting 38% of break points. Marozsan had 4 aces, 2 double faults, 70% first-serve win percentage, and 60% break point conversion, with both players securing 3 service breaks.

Key context

  • Match story: Matteo Arnaldi closed it out in three sets, 7–5 2–6 6–4.

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-18GenevaR16clayMatteo Arnaldi6-3 7-6
2021-04-14M15 Antalya 15R32clayMatteo Arnaldi7-6(2) 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Even
61%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.7
5.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.1
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
53
54
Break points saved·Even
94
95
Break points won·Slight edge
17
22
Deciding sets·Slight edge
65
58
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Marozsan F.48%
Arnaldi M.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+14 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1732
4.4Overall Elo 1784
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1830
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.94 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
82
77

Marozsan F.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Arnaldi M.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw