Juncheng Shang vs Andrey Rublev — Montreal Round of 64

Montreal · ATP · Round of 64
CHNPR
Juncheng Shang
#228ATP
1746ELO
1698Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 3rd on
Andrey Rublev
RUS10
Andrey Rublev
#18ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWLL
Shang J.
7-5 4-6 7-6
Rublev A.
Shang J.
74772
Rublev A.
56651

Juncheng Shang defeated Andrey Rublev in the Round of 64 at the Montreal tournament, winning 7-5, 4-6, 7-6 on hard courts. Shang and Rublev were evenly matched in service breaks, each securing four. Shang converted 57% of his break points, while Rublev converted 27%.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-01Hong KongSFhardAndrey Rublev4-6 6-2 6-3

Statistics

This season
Shang J.Rublev A.
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
29%
38%
Break points saved·Even
67%
68%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.5
7.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (8 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Shang J.Rublev A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
60
83
Break points saved·Slight edge
91
98
Break points won·Dominant
16
65
Deciding sets·Clear edge
84
96
Tiebreaks·Even
91
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Shang J.35%
Rublev A.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rublev A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Shang J.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Rublev A.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1698
Surface ELO
6.9+150 Hard Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1746
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1902
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
3.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.16 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Shang J.Rublev A.
Freshness·Clear edge
91
79

Shang J.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Rublev A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
26°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw