Rei Sakamoto vs Aidan Mayo — Lexington Round of 32

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
JPN6
Rei Sakamoto
#165ATP
1608ELO
1589Hard ELO
$235kYTD
$494kCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 3 · 3rd on
USAQ
Aidan Mayo
#616ATP
1380ELO
1359Hard ELO
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWWW
Sakamoto R.
7-6 7-5
Mayo A.
Sakamoto R.
7772
Mayo A.
6350

Rei Sakamoto defeated Aidan Mayo in the Round of 32 at the Lexington hard-court tournament, winning 7-6, 7-5. Sakamoto and Mayo hit 10 and 13 aces, respectively, and both players committed 3 double faults. Sakamoto converted 50% of break points, while Mayo converted 14%, as Sakamoto secured 2 service breaks to Mayo's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Sakamoto R.Mayo A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.5
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sakamoto R.Mayo A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
49
12
Break points saved·Clear edge
87
68
Break points won·Slight edge
8
1
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
7
Tiebreaks·Dominant
23
52

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Sakamoto R.65%
Mayo A.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sakamoto R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sakamoto R.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Mayo A.
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.9+230 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.1Hard Elo 1359
7.8Overall Elo 1608
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 1380
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.95 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.66 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
5.0Won 50% in Usa (24)
Country comfort
4.9Won 49% in Usa (53)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sakamoto R.Mayo A.
Freshness·Clear edge
65
79

Sakamoto R.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 95 games (7d) · Mayo A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw