Shintaro Mochizuki vs Fabian MarozsanMontreal Round of 128

Montreal · ATP · Round of 128
#112ATP
1475ELO
1425Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 4th on
#63ATP
1784ELO
1747Hard ELO
$765kYTD
$4.6MCAREER
26 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWLW
Mochizuki S.
4-6 3-6
Marozsan F.
Mochizuki S.
430
Marozsan F.
662

Fabian Marozsan defeated Shintaro Mochizuki in the Round of 128 of the Montreal tournament, winning 6-4, 6-3 on hard courts. Marozsan hit one ace and two double faults, while Mochizuki had no aces and four double faults. Marozsan converted 50% of his break points and won four service breaks to Mochizuki's two.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
51%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
34%
Break points saved·Even
58%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.4
4.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
25
53
Break points saved·Dominant
60
94
Break points won·Dominant
68
17
Deciding sets·Dominant
5
65
Tiebreaks·Dominant
57
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Mochizuki S.46%
Marozsan F.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.0Hard Elo 1425
Surface ELO
9.0+321 Hard Elo edge
1.1Overall Elo 1475
ELO gap
8.9Overall Elo 1784
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.44 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
85
95

Mochizuki S.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d) · Marozsan F.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw