Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Cameron NorrieMontreal Round of 128

Montreal · ATP · Round of 128
#76ATP
1759ELO
1642Hard ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 3rd on
#35ATP
1829ELO
1789Hard ELO
$963kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-7 4-6
Norrie C.
Ugo Carabelli C.
6540
Norrie C.
7762

Cameron Norrie defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Round of 128 in Montreal. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 6-4 in favor of Norrie. Key stats included Norrie's 7 aces and 3 double faults compared to Ugo Carabelli's 5 aces and 2 double faults; both players had a first-serve win percentage of 67; Norrie converted 75% of break points while Ugo Carabelli converted 100%; Norrie secured 3 service breaks to Ugo Carabelli's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.6
5.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
50
88
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
98
Break points won·Dominant
41
84
Deciding sets·Even
93
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
3
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Ugo Carabelli C.30%
Norrie C.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Norrie C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1642
Surface ELO
6.8+148 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1829
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.53 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
95
71

Ugo Carabelli C.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Norrie C.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
18°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 78%

Draw