Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres BurruchagaMontreal Round of 128

Montreal · ATP · Round of 128
#128ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$573kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 2 · 2nd on
#61ATP
1711ELO
1545Hard ELO
$458kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLL
Popyrin A.
4-6 7-5 6-3
Burruchaga R.
Popyrin A.
4762
Burruchaga R.
6531

Alexei Popyrin defeated Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Round of 128 in Montreal. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 in favor of Popyrin. Key stats included Popyrin's 16 aces and Burruchaga's 8, as well as Popyrin's 3 service breaks to Burruchaga's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
60%
Return points won·Clear edge
31%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.2
2.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
49
67
Break points saved·Dominant
97
68
Break points won·Dominant
1
73
Deciding sets·Clear edge
68
84
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
88
65

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Popyrin A.63%
Burruchaga R.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Popyrin A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.7+136 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Hard Elo 1545
5.4Overall Elo 1741
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1711
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.23 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.64 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
88
85

Popyrin A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Burruchaga R.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw