Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Liam Draxl — Montreal Round of 128

Montreal · ATP · Round of 128
ESP
Daniel Merida Aguilar
#40ATP
1744ELO
1676Hard ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 4 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 2nd on
Liam Draxl
CANWC
Liam Draxl
#216ATP
1592ELO
1565Hard ELO
$201kYTD
$642kCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWWL
Merida Aguilar D.
3-6 6-4 6-4
Draxl L.
Merida Aguilar D.
3662
Draxl L.
6441

Daniel Merida Aguilar defeated Liam Draxl in the Round of 128 of the Montreal hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 in favor of Aguilar.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Merida Aguilar D.Draxl L.
1st serve in·Even
67%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Even
56%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.3
4.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Merida Aguilar D.Draxl L.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
55
66
Break points saved·Clear edge
64
83
Break points won·Slight edge
46
36
Deciding sets·Slight edge
87
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
49
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Merida Aguilar D.61%
Draxl L.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Merida Aguilar D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Merida Aguilar D.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Draxl L.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+110 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1565
6.9Overall Elo 1744
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1592
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Merida Aguilar D.Draxl L.
Freshness·Clear edge
65
89

Merida Aguilar D.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d) · Draxl L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw