Abedallah Shelbayh vs Mees RottgeringLexington Q16

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Q16
#253ATP
1442ELO
1448Hard ELO
22 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 3 · 2nd on
#418ATP
1468ELO
1449Hard ELO
19 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWLW
Shelbayh A.
7-5 6-4
Rottgering M.
Shelbayh A.
762
Rottgering M.
540

Abedallah Shelbayh won the Lexington final, defeating Mees Rottgering 7-5, 6-4. Shelbayh hit 6 aces and did not commit a double fault, while Rottgering had 3 aces and 6 double faults. Shelbayh converted 38% of break points and won 3 service breaks to Rottgering's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Even
56%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.2
3.0
Double faults / match·Even
3.0
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Shelbayh A.61%
Rottgering M.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Shelbayh A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0Hard Elo 1448
Surface ELO
5.0+1 Hard Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1442
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1468
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.46 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
79
82

Shelbayh A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d) · Rottgering M.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 82%

Draw