Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Karolina PliskovaToronto Round of 128

Toronto · WTA · Round of 128
#46WTA
1773ELO
1572Hard ELO
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
#57WTA
1869ELO
1811Hard ELO
34 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWWL
Oliynykova O.
4-6 4-6
Pliskova K.
Oliynykova O.
440
Pliskova K.
662

Karolina Pliskova defeated Oleksandra Oliynykova in the Round of 128 at the Toronto tournament, winning 6-4, 6-4 on hard courts. Pliskova served four aces and committed four double faults, converting 62% of her break points and winning 66% of her first-serve points. Oliynykova had one ace and six double faults, converting 33% of her break points and winning 61% of her first-serve points.

Around the match

  • Gained direct entry to main draw following Victoria Mboko's knee injury withdrawal.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Karolina Pliskova edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-03TorontoR128hardKarolina Pliskova6-4 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
74%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
42%
43%
Service points won·Even
54%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Break points saved·Even
51%
55%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.7
4.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.8
5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
88
Break points saved·Slight edge
75
86
Break points won·Slight edge
99
93
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
96
Tiebreaks·
77

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Oliynykova O.39%
Pliskova K.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Pliskova K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.0Hard Elo 1572
Surface ELO
8.0+239 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1773
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1869
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
88
94

Oliynykova O.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 30 games (7d) · Pliskova K.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 14 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw