Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez vs Aidan MayoLexington Q16

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Q16
#292ATP
1527ELO
1487Hard ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 3 · 1st on
#616ATP
1380ELO
1359Hard ELO
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWLWWW
Pacheco Mendez R.
4-6 6-7
Mayo A.
Pacheco Mendez R.
4670
Mayo A.
6792

Aidan Mayo won the Lexington final, defeating Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 6-4, 7-6. Mayo hit 6 aces to Pacheco Mendez's 1 and converted 10 percent of his break points, while Pacheco Mendez converted none. Mayo won 84 percent of his first-serve points to Pacheco Mendez's 71 percent, and each player made 3 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.9
4.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.2
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
13
12
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
68
Break points won·Even
3
1
Deciding sets·Clear edge
21
7
Tiebreaks·Dominant
1
52

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Pacheco Mendez R.56%
Mayo A.44%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.6+128 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1359
6.8Overall Elo 1526
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1380
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
4.9Won 48% in Usa (52)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
79

Pacheco Mendez R.: 16 days rest · Mayo A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 90%

Draw