Carol Zhao vs Magda LinetteToronto Round of 128

Toronto · WTA · Round of 128
#578WTA
1390ELO
1400Hard ELO
31 yrs · 165 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLLWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 3 August 2026 ·
hard
#62WTA
1831ELO
1780Hard ELO
$732kYTD
$8.8MCAREER
34 yrs · 171 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLWWWL
Zhao C.
6-4 1-6 4-6
Linette M.
Zhao C.
6141
Linette M.
4662

Magda Linette defeated Carol Zhao in the Round of 128 at the Toronto tournament, prevailing 4-6, 6-1, 6-4. Linette served three aces and committed two double faults, while Zhao had no aces and 10 double faults. Linette won 73% of her first-serve points and converted 42% of her break points, breaking Zhao's serve five times to Zhao's three.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
37%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
52%
58%
Return points won·Even
41%
41%
Break points saved·Even
56%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.4
3.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.9
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
10
58
Break points saved·Slight edge
19
25
Break points won·Slight edge
63
70
Deciding sets·Dominant
40
88
Tiebreaks·Dominant
30
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Zhao C.17%
Linette M.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Linette M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.3Hard Elo 1400
Surface ELO
9.7+379 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1390
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1831
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.45 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 8
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
94

Zhao C.: 16 days rest · Linette M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
26°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 43%

Draw