Arthur Gea vs Denis Shapovalov — Los Cabos Final

Los Cabos · ATP · Final
FRA
Arthur Gea
#85ATP
1597ELO
1610Hard ELO
$359kYTD
$611kCAREER
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 2 August 2026 ·
hard
Denis Shapovalov
CAN8
Denis Shapovalov
#48ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLLW
Gea A.
6-3 6-4
Shapovalov D.
Gea A.
662
Shapovalov D.
340

Arthur Gea won the Los Cabos final, defeating Denis Shapovalov 6-3, 6-4. Gea converted 43% of his break points, compared to Shapovalov's 14%, and secured three service breaks to Shapovalov's one. Gea hit one ace and four double faults, while Shapovalov had two aces and nine double faults.

Around the match

  • “Great serving from me today and I knew I needed it against a guy like Cam. He doesn't give you many free points so I knew I had to try and hit my serves and hit tricky spots for him.”

    Shapovalov D.Sky Sports ↗

  • “I was really tense, to be honest – first final. I was really ready to play it. The plan was the same as in the semis, and I did it, and it was perfect.”

    Gea A.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “Very happy to be back on court, healthy again. A few weeks ago we didn't know if I would even be at this tournament, so to be back playing at such a high level, it's definitely very special.”

    Shapovalov D.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “I didn't know how I would win this week. I was really happy every day to win one more match, one more, then one more. And I have finished with a trophy, so it was an amazing week.”

    Gea A.World Tennis Magazine ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Arthur Gea closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Gea A.Shapovalov D.
1st serve in·Even
58%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.1
7.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
4.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gea A.Shapovalov D.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
38
79
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
97
Break points won·Dominant
27
70
Deciding sets·Dominant
26
91
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
85
71

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:50 UTC
Gea A.49%
Shapovalov D.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gea A.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Shapovalov D.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.9Hard Elo 1610
Surface ELO
7.1+166 Hard Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1596
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1771
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.48 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gea A.Shapovalov D.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
80

Gea A.: 17 days rest · Shapovalov D.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
18°CClear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 92%

Draw