Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ariana ArseneaultToronto Round of 128

Toronto · WTA · Round of 128
#90WTA
1721ELO
1664Hard ELO
$391kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 2 August 2026 ·
hard
#381WTA
1273ELO
1260Hard ELO
24 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWLW
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-2 6-4
Arseneault A.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
662
Arseneault A.
240

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro defeated Ariana Arseneault in the Round of 128 of the Toronto tournament on hard courts, winning 6-2, 6-4. Bouzas Maneiro converted 57% of her break points and won four service breaks to Arseneault's one. The match saw Bouzas Maneiro hit two aces and six double faults, compared to two aces and one double fault for Arseneault.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
48%
Service points won·Even
54%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
50%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.5
2.7
Double faults / match·Even
3.8
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Bouzas Maneiro J.69%
Arseneault A.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bouzas Maneiro J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+404 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1260
10.0Overall Elo 1721
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1273
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.82 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.65 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
81
100

Bouzas Maneiro J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Arseneault A.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 90%

Draw