Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Mili PoljicakSan Marino Final

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Final
#87ATP
1681ELO
1668Clay ELO
$294kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 2 August 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#264ATP
1471ELO
1442Clay ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWL
Diaz Acosta F.
6-1 6-4
Poljicak M.
Diaz Acosta F.
662
Poljicak M.
140

Facundo Diaz Acosta won the San Marino final, defeating Mili Poljicak 6-1, 6-4. Diaz Acosta hit 2 aces and 1 double fault, winning 80 percent of his first serves and converting 38 percent of break points. He broke Poljicak's serve 3 times, while Poljicak had 3 aces and no double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
49%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Even
60%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
4.9
Double faults / match·Even
2.5
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
5
23
Break points saved·Slight edge
72
77
Break points won·Slight edge
16
7
Deciding sets·Slight edge
4
13
Tiebreaks·Dominant
25
69

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Diaz Acosta F.67%
Poljicak M.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Diaz Acosta F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.8+227 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Clay Elo 1442
7.6Overall Elo 1680
ELO gap
2.4Overall Elo 1471
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.47 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.97 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Diaz Acosta F.: 17 days rest · Poljicak M.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw