Mili Poljicak vs Juan Pablo VarillasSan Marino Semi-final

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#264ATP
1471ELO
1442Clay ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#236ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLWW
Poljicak M.
7-5 6-4
Varillas J.
Poljicak M.
762
Varillas J.
540

Mili Poljicak advanced to the final of the San Marino tournament, defeating Juan Pablo Varillas in the semifinals. Poljicak won 7-5, 6-4, with a stronger first serve and more service breaks. Poljicak served five aces to Varillas' two and converted four service breaks to Varillas' two.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.9
2.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
23
31
Break points saved·Slight edge
77
68
Break points won·Dominant
7
45
Deciding sets·Dominant
13
44
Tiebreaks·Dominant
69
29

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Poljicak M.57%
Varillas J.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.1+11 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Clay Elo 1431
5.4Overall Elo 1471
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1440
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.16 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.48 of last 10 on clay
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Poljicak M.: 17 days rest · Varillas J.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
32°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 33%

Draw