Cameron Norrie vs Denis ShapovalovLos Cabos Semi-final

Los Cabos · ATP · Semi-final
#35ATP
1829ELO
1789Hard ELO
$963kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
#48ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLLW
Norrie C.
3-6 7-5 4-6
Shapovalov D.
Norrie C.
3741
Shapovalov D.
6562

Denis Shapovalov defeated Cameron Norrie in the semifinals of the Los Cabos tournament, winning 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 on hard courts. Shapovalov hit 9 aces to Norrie's 1 and converted 60% of his break points, compared to Norrie's 18%. Shapovalov won 3 service breaks to Norrie's 2.

Key context

Head to head

30
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-09-27San DiegoQFhardCameron Norrie6-3 6-1
2021-06-19LondonSFcarpetCameron Norrie7-5 6-3
2021-06-14Queen's ClubSFgrassCameron Norrie7-5 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.3
7.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.8
4.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
79
Break points saved·Even
98
97
Break points won·Clear edge
84
70
Deciding sets·Slight edge
97
91
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
79
71

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC
Norrie C.52%
Shapovalov D.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.2+14 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1775
5.7Overall Elo 1829
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1771
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.76 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
71
80

Norrie C.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Shapovalov D.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
19°CDrizzle
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 91%

Draw