Michael Zheng vs Kei NishikoriMontreal Q32

Montreal · ATP · Q32
#110ATP
1695ELO
1672Hard ELO
$310kYTD
$502kCAREER
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#479ATP
1714ELO
1680Hard ELO
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWLW
Zheng M.
6-3 6-1
Nishikori K.
Zheng M.
662
Nishikori K.
310

Michael Zheng defeated Kei Nishikori in the Montreal final, winning 6-3, 6-1. Zheng hit 3 aces and did not commit a double fault, while Nishikori had 0 aces and 3 double faults. Zheng converted 56% of his break points and broke Nishikori's serve 5 times, compared to Nishikori's 1 service break.

Around the match

  • Japanese tennis icon Nishikori, retiring at season's end, competing in Montreal qualifying.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
55%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
39%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
50%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.7
2.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.4
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Zheng M.55%
Nishikori K.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Hard Elo 1672
Surface ELO
5.1+9 Hard Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1695
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1714
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
58
83

Zheng M.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 124 games (7d) · Nishikori K.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw