Eero Vasa vs Petr NesterovM25 Gentofte Semi-final

M25 Gentofte · ITF · Semi-final
#468ATP
1364ELO
1345Clay ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
clay
#301ATP
1456ELO
1410Clay ELO
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWW
Vasa E.
3-6 6-1 4-6
Nesterov P.
Vasa E.
3641
Nesterov P.
6162

Petr Nesterov defeated Eero Vasa in the semifinals of the M25 Gentofte tournament, winning 6-3, 1-6, 6-4 on clay. Nesterov hit four aces and did not commit a double fault, while Vasa had six aces and six double faults. Both players converted 4 service breaks, but Nesterov won at a slightly lower rate on his first serve and on break points.

Key context

  • Match story: Petr Nesterov closed it out in three sets, 6–3 1–6 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
37%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.9
4.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.2
1.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Vasa E.32%
Nesterov P.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Nesterov P. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.2Clay Elo 1345
Surface ELO
5.8+65 Clay Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1364
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1456
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.13 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
98
95

Vasa E.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Nesterov P.: 12 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw