Marcos Giron vs Pablo Llamas RuizMontreal Q32

Montreal · ATP · Q32
#83ATP
1718ELO
1704Hard ELO
$500kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 2 · 1st on
#130ATP
1757ELO
1630Hard ELO
$268kYTD
$884kCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLLWWLW
Giron M.
2-6 6-3 6-1
Llamas Ruiz P.
Giron M.
2662
Llamas Ruiz P.
6311

Marcos Giron won the Montreal final, defeating Pablo Llamas Ruiz 2-6, 6-3, 6-1. Giron converted 83% of his break points, compared to 33% for Llamas Ruiz, and secured five service breaks to Llamas Ruiz's three. The final statistics showed Giron with four aces and two double faults, while Llamas Ruiz had six aces and two double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Even
63%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.2
2.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
44
63
Break points saved·Slight edge
94
88
Break points won·Even
37
39
Deciding sets·Dominant
31
79
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
84
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Giron M.53%
Llamas Ruiz P.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+74 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1630
4.5Overall Elo 1718
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1757
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.47 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.26 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
91
95

Giron M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Llamas Ruiz P.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 68%

Draw