Naomi Osaka vs Alexandra Eala — Washington Semi-final

Washington · WTA · Semi-final
Naomi Osaka
JPN3
Naomi Osaka
#13WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 3rd on
Alexandra Eala
PHI
Alexandra Eala
#20WTA
1895ELO
1833Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$2.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWWL
Osaka N.
4-6 2-6
Eala A.
Osaka N.
420
Eala A.
662

Alexandra Eala defeated Naomi Osaka 6-4, 6-2 in the semifinals of the Washington tournament. Eala served 0 aces and 1 double fault, while Osaka served 5 aces and 5 double faults. Eala won the match with 4 service breaks to Osaka's 1.

Around the match

  • “She's such an accomplished player, and I think she's made waves on and off the tennis court for so many reasons. There's so much respect for her for that, and you know I'm really excited.”

    Eala A.WTA Tennis ↗

  • Osaka recovered from a set down in the quarterfinals and is gaining confidence from winning matches this season despite not playing at her best.

    Osaka N.Last Word On Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Osaka N.Eala A.
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Even
58%
56%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.8
1.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Osaka N.Eala A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
93
41
Break points saved·Dominant
85
12
Break points won·Clear edge
98
83
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
65
Tiebreaks·
86
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Osaka N.67%
Eala A.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Osaka N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Osaka N.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Eala A.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.1+89 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1832
6.2Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1895
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.17 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Osaka N.Eala A.
Freshness·Clear edge
90
72

Osaka N.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Eala A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
32°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 37%

Draw