Wilson Leite vs Mateus Alves — M15 Sao Paulo Semi-final

M15 Sao Paulo · ITF · Semi-final
BRA
Wilson Leite
#728ATP
34 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 1 August 2026 ·
clay
BRA2
Mateus Alves
#414ATP
1245ELO
1247Clay ELO
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWL
Leite W.
1-6 2-6
Alves M.
Leite W.
120
Alves M.
662

Mateus Alves defeated Wilson Leite in the semifinals of the M15 Sao Paulo tournament, winning 6-1, 6-2 on clay. Alves hit 4 aces and 3 double faults, while Leite hit 1 ace and 2 double faults. Alves converted 36% of break points and won 95% of first-serve points, breaking Leite's serve 4 times en route to the win.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Leite W.Alves M.
1st serve in·Even
58%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.5
3.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Leite W.Alves M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
0
7
Break points saved·Dominant
19
77
Break points won·Even
11
10
Deciding sets·Slight edge
8
1
Tiebreaks·Even
9
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Leite W.29%
Alves M.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Alves M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Leite W.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Alves M.
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.8Split 1–1 on clay
H2H
5.2Split 1–1 on clay
5.76 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.63 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
26°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 29%

Draw