Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor SvrcinaLos Cabos Quarter-final

Los Cabos · ATP · Quarter-final
#48ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
#114ATP
1640ELO
1624Hard ELO
$304kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
23 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLWLL
Shapovalov D.
6-4 6-2
Svrcina D.
Shapovalov D.
662
Svrcina D.
420

Denis Shapovalov defeated Dalibor Svrcina in the quarterfinals of the Los Cabos tournament, winning 6-4, 6-2 on hard courts. Shapovalov hit one ace and eight double faults, while converting 38 percent of break points and winning 67 percent of first-serve points. Svrcina had two aces and six double faults, converting 60 percent of break points and winning 49 percent of first-serve points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
44%
Break points saved·Even
56%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.7
1.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.6
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
79
34
Break points saved·Dominant
97
44
Break points won·Clear edge
70
90
Deciding sets·Dominant
91
27
Tiebreaks·Dominant
72
30

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC
Shapovalov D.67%
Svrcina D.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Shapovalov D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.9+151 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Hard Elo 1624
6.6Overall Elo 1771
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1640
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
87
85

Shapovalov D.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Svrcina D.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 90%

Draw