Diana Shnaider vs Liudmila SamsonovaWashington Quarter-final

Washington · WTA · Quarter-final
#14WTA
1891ELO
1833Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.3MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 3rd on
#43WTA
1775ELO
1723Hard ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWLW
Shnaider D.
6-3 6-4
Samsonova L.
Shnaider D.
662
Samsonova L.
340

Diana Shnaider defeated Liudmila Samsonova in the quarterfinals of the Washington tournament, winning 6-3, 6-4 on hard courts. Shnaider converted 60% of her break points and won 3 service breaks to Samsonova's 1. Shnaider also had 2 aces and 1 double fault, compared to Samsonova's 4 aces and 4 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-02WimbledonR64grassLiudmila Samsonova4-6 6-4 2-6
2024-08-05TorontoQFhardDiana Shnaider4-6 6-1 6-4
2024-05-06RomeR64clayDiana Shnaider6-1 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
43%
Break points saved·Even
57%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.3
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
4.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
82
56
Break points saved·Slight edge
63
73
Break points won·Slight edge
98
92
Deciding sets·Dominant
89
45
Tiebreaks·Dominant
86
34

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Shnaider D.67%
Samsonova L.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Shnaider D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+110 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1723
6.5Overall Elo 1891
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1775
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
5.25 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
71
60

Shnaider D.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Samsonova L.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
31°CMainly clear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 41%

Draw