Cameron Norrie vs Bernard Tomic — Los Cabos Quarter-final

Los Cabos · ATP · Quarter-final
Cameron Norrie
GBR5
Cameron Norrie
#35ATP
1829ELO
1789Hard ELO
$963kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
Bernard Tomic
AUS
Bernard Tomic
#164ATP
1475ELO
1441Hard ELO
$117kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWW
Norrie C.
6-1 6-0
Tomic B.
Norrie C.
662
Tomic B.
100

Cameron Norrie advanced to the Los Cabos semifinals with a 6-1, 6-0 quarterfinal win over Bernard Tomic. Norrie converted 40% of his break points and won 89% of his first-serve points. Tomic was limited to 0% break point conversions and 48% first-serve wins.

Around the match

  • “I'm pleased with the result. I was very solid, I returned well, I made a lot of tough balls when I needed to.”

    Norrie C.ubitennis.net ↗

  • “He's really confident at the moment. When he's confident, he's one of the toughest guys in the world to play. But I'm going to focus on myself, enjoy tonight, and get ready for the match.”

    Norrie C.ubitennis.net ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Norrie C.Tomic B.
1st serve in·Even
63%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.3
4.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Norrie C.Tomic B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
88
53
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
88
Break points won·Dominant
84
8
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
83
Tiebreaks·Even
79
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Norrie C.73%
Tomic B.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Norrie C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Norrie C.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Tomic B.
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
9.3+348 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.7Hard Elo 1441
9.4Overall Elo 1829
ELO gap
0.6Overall Elo 1474
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Norrie C.Tomic B.
Freshness·Clear edge
76
91

Norrie C.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Tomic B.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 90%

Draw