Alex De Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima — Washington Quarter-final

Washington · ATP · Quarter-final
Alex De Minaur
AUS1
Alex De Minaur
#8ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 2nd on
Brandon Nakashima
USA
Brandon Nakashima
#22ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWLW
De Minaur A.
6-7 4-6
Nakashima B.
De Minaur A.
6540
Nakashima B.
7762

Brandon Nakashima defeated Alex De Minaur in the quarterfinals of the Washington tournament, winning 7-6, 6-4 on hard courts. Nakashima hit 10 aces to De Minaur's 5 and converted 50% of his break points, compared to De Minaur's 14%. Nakashima won 83% of his first-serve points to De Minaur's 68%, and secured 2 service breaks to De Minaur's 1.

Around the match

  • “Yeah, look, I think for the tournament, for the spectators, for the viewers, it's obviously better, right? Because you're going to get stacked draws, you're going to get potential first round clashes that are brutal.”

    De Minaur A.Tennis365 ↗

  • “It was definitely weird. I knew I was going to play him on the tour someday, but I didn't actually expect it to be this week. It was an amazing feeling.”

    De Minaur A.Flashscore.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-19LondonQFgrassBrandon Nakashima5-7 3-6
2025-07-21WashingtonQFhardAlex De Minaur6-4 6-4
2021-10-18AntwerpR32hardBrandon Nakashima6-4 6-0
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
De Minaur A.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.1
10.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
0.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
De Minaur A.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
94
36
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Dominant
97
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
95
37
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
98
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
De Minaur A.64%
Nakashima B.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · De Minaur A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
De Minaur A.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Nakashima B.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.8+148 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Hard Elo 1788
6.5Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1839
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
De Minaur A.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Clear edge
72
52

De Minaur A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 98 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
30°CMainly clear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw