Jessica Pegula vs Anna KalinskayaWashington Quarter-final

Washington · WTA · Quarter-final
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 1st on
#21WTA
1907ELO
1863Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$7.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Pegula J.
6-3 7-5
Kalinskaya A.
Pegula J.
672
Kalinskaya A.
350

Jessica Pegula advanced to the semifinals of the Washington tournament, defeating Anna Kalinskaya in the quarterfinals with a score of 6-3, 7-5. Pegula hit 5 aces and 1 double fault, while Kalinskaya had 3 aces and 5 double faults. Pegula converted 43% of her break points and won 80% of her first-serve points, compared to Kalinskaya's 25% break point conversion and 65% first-serve win percentage.

Around the match

  • I saw her score before I came out here, and I'm like, sorry Anna, but I was kind of hoping I wasn't going to have to face you because we literally always play three sets. We always have crazy matches.

    Pegula J.WTA Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

41
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneR32hardJessica Pegula6-2 2-6 6-4
2025-05-18StrasbourgR16clayAnna Kalinskaya4-6 6-4 6-2
2025-03-18MiamiR32hardJessica Pegula6-7 6-2 7-6
2024-06-17BerlinFgrassJessica Pegula6-7 6-4 7-6
2019-07-29WashingtonSFhardJessica Pegula6-3 3-6 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
51%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
2.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
75
Break points saved·Dominant
86
38
Break points won·Even
99
96
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
92
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
91
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Pegula J.77%
Kalinskaya A.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.4+195 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 1863
7.4Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1907
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
7.98 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
74
70

Pegula J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d) · Kalinskaya A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°CPartly cloudy
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw