Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Naomi OsakaWashington Quarter-final

Washington · WTA · Quarter-final
#60WTA
1805ELO
1773Hard ELO
$555kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 166 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 2nd on
#13WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWW
Cocciaretto E.
6-4 4-6 3-6
Osaka N.
Cocciaretto E.
6431
Osaka N.
4662

Naomi Osaka advanced to the semifinals of the Washington tournament, defeating Elisabetta Cocciaretto in a three-set match. The final score was 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. Osaka hit 9 aces to Cocciaretto's 1 and won 73% of her first-serve points to her opponent's 59%, while Cocciaretto converted 67% of her break points to Osaka's 42%.

Around the match

  • Osaka reaches her first Washington quarterfinal after Krueger retires with a right ankle injury; she's now in three consecutive quarterfinals across tournaments.

    Osaka N.WTA Tennis
  • I think from my end I just have had so much good interactions with the fans here. Everyone is just really lovely. I kind of just wanted to throw that together to get to know everyone a lot more.

    Osaka N.WTA Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-03-18MiamiR128hardNaomi Osaka6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
62%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Even
58%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.6
5.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
25
93
Break points saved·Dominant
23
85
Break points won·Clear edge
86
98
Deciding sets·Dominant
12
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
50
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Cocciaretto E.22%
Osaka N.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Osaka N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1772
Surface ELO
6.9+149 Hard Elo edge
2.7Overall Elo 1805
ELO gap
7.3Overall Elo 1987
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
8.18 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
97
87

Cocciaretto E.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 8 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
31°CMainly clear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw