Francisco Cerundolo vs Arthur GeaLos Cabos Quarter-final

Los Cabos · ATP · Quarter-final
#25ATP
1931ELO
1880Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$11MCAREER
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
#85ATP
1597ELO
1610Hard ELO
$359kYTD
$611kCAREER
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWWL
Cerundolo F.
7-6 4-6 0-6
Gea A.
Cerundolo F.
713401
Gea A.
611662

Arthur Gea advanced to the semifinals of the Los Cabos tournament by defeating Francisco Cerundolo in the quarterfinals. Gea won 6-7, 6-4, 6-0. In the match, Gea hit 2 aces and 6 double faults, while Cerundolo had 4 aces and 0 double faults; Gea converted 62% of break points and broke Cerundolo's serve 5 times, compared to Cerundolo's 1 service break and 20% break point conversion.

Around the match

  • Cerundolo advanced to the quarterfinals in unconvincing fashion, losing the first set to Tristan Boyer before his opponent retired.

  • I played really well

    Gea A.ATP Tour

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Even
62%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.4
6.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
87
38
Break points saved·Clear edge
95
81
Break points won·Dominant
89
27
Deciding sets·Dominant
87
26
Tiebreaks·Even
88
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Cerundolo F.65%
Gea A.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cerundolo F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.4+271 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.6Hard Elo 1610
9.2Overall Elo 1931
ELO gap
0.8Overall Elo 1596
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.28 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.28 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
100

Cerundolo F.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Gea A.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
20°COvercast
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 91%

Draw