Timofey Skatov vs Otto VirtanenSan Marino Round of 16

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#149ATP
1544ELO
1531Clay ELO
$110kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT COURT 2 DE LUIGI · 1st on
#116ATP
1706ELO
1532Clay ELO
$214kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLL
Skatov T.
6-2 6-4
Virtanen O.
Skatov T.
662
Virtanen O.
240

Timofey Skatov advanced to the quarterfinals at the San Marino tournament, defeating Otto Virtanen in the Round of 16. Skatov won in straight sets, 6-2, 6-4. In the match, Skatov hit 2 aces and 0 double faults, while Virtanen had 7 aces and 6 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-05-29Roland GarrosQ2clayTimofey Skatov4-6 6-2 7-5
2023-05-24Roland GarrosQ64clayTimofey Skatov4-6 6-2 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.1
9.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
18
11
Break points saved·Slight edge
77
82
Break points won·Clear edge
13
1
Deciding sets·Clear edge
5
29
Tiebreaks·Dominant
82
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Skatov T.41%
Virtanen O.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Virtanen O. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.0Clay Elo 1531
Surface ELO
5.0+0 Clay Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1544
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1706
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
5.15 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.85 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
88

Skatov T.: 15 days rest · Virtanen O.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 38%

Draw