S. Saito vs Erika SemaW75 Lexington Round of 16

W75 Lexington · ITF · Round of 16
JPN
S. Saito
29 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
#490WTA
37 yrs · 163 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWWLW
Saito S.
3-6 6-2 6-4
Sema E.
Saito S.
3662
Sema E.
6241

Naomi Saito defeated Erika Sema 3-6, 6-2, 6-4 in the Round of 16 at the W75 Lexington tournament. Saito and Sema were tied with zero aces each, but Saito committed 10 more double faults. Saito won 64% of her first-serve points to Sema's 48%, and converted 60% of her break points to Sema's 42%, with Saito securing 9 service breaks to Sema's 8.

Key context

  • Match story: S. Saito dropped the opening set before beating Erika Sema 3–6 6–2 6–4.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-24W35 Taipei 2R32hardErika Sema4-6 5-7

Statistics

This season
Saito S.Sema E.
1st serve in·
74%
1st serve points won·
60%
2nd serve points won·
45%
Service points won·
56%
Return points won·
48%
Break points saved·
53%
Aces / match·
0.6
Double faults / match·
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Saito S.30%
Sema E.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sema E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Saito S.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
28°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw