Thiago Monteiro vs Andrea Pellegrino — San Marino Round of 16

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Thiago Monteiro
BRAQ
Thiago Monteiro
#274ATP
1568ELO
1554Clay ELO
32 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT COURT 2 DE LUIGI · 3rd on
Andrea Pellegrino
ITA6
Andrea Pellegrino
#135ATP
1674ELO
1654Clay ELO
$320kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLWLWLW
Monteiro T.
6-3 6-2
Pellegrino A.
Monteiro T.
662
Pellegrino A.
320

Thiago Monteiro defeated Andrea Pellegrino 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the San Marino tournament on clay. Monteiro hit 4 aces and 2 double faults, winning 72% of his first serves and converting 80% of break points. He converted 4 service breaks to Pellegrino's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Monteiro T.Pellegrino A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Even
65%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.4
3.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Monteiro T.Pellegrino A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
23
55
Break points saved·Clear edge
88
67
Break points won·Dominant
10
35
Deciding sets·Dominant
11
82
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
79
73

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Monteiro T.40%
Pellegrino A.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Pellegrino A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Monteiro T.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Pellegrino A.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Clay Elo 1554
Surface ELO
6.2+100 Clay Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1568
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1674
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
7.47 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Monteiro T.Pellegrino A.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
78

Monteiro T.: 15 days rest · Pellegrino A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw