Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub MensikWashington Round of 16

Washington · ATP · Round of 16
#22ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 1st on
#16ATP
1931ELO
1893Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.9MCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWL
Nakashima B.
7-6 3-6 6-4
Mensik J.
Nakashima B.
77362
Mensik J.
65641

Brandon Nakashima defeated Jakub Mensik in the Round of 16 at the Washington tournament, winning 7-6, 3-6, 6-4 on hard courts. Nakashima and Mensik were evenly matched in service breaks, each converting two opportunities. Nakashima hit 12 aces and 4 double faults, while Mensik had 15 aces and 7 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-15Australian OpenQ1hardJakub Mensik6-4 7-6
2024-01-10Australian OpenQ128hardJakub Mensik6-4 7-6(4)

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
78%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
48%
Service points won·Even
69%
67%
Return points won·Even
34%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
10.7
11.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
0.8
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
33
85
Break points saved·Even
96
96
Break points won·Dominant
3
71
Deciding sets·Dominant
31
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
82
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Nakashima B.33%
Mensik J.67%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mensik J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1788
Surface ELO
6.3+105 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1931
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
59
66

Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d) · Mensik J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 71 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw