Denis Shapovalov vs Rodrigo Pacheco MendezLos Cabos Round of 16

Los Cabos · ATP · Round of 16
#48ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
#292ATP
1527ELO
1487Hard ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWLWWL
Shapovalov D.
6-3 6-2
Pacheco Mendez R.
Shapovalov D.
662
Pacheco Mendez R.
320

Denis Shapovalov defeated Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the Los Cabos hard-court tournament. Shapovalov hit 7 aces and converted 75% of his break points, while Pacheco Mendez was unable to capitalize on any of his break point opportunities. Shapovalov won 90% of his first-serve points and took 3 service breaks en route to the victory.

Around the match

  • produced one of his cleanest performances of the season in the previous round

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
56%
69%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.7
4.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.6
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
79
13
Break points saved·Clear edge
97
81
Break points won·Dominant
70
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
91
21
Tiebreaks·Dominant
71
1

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:50 UTC
Shapovalov D.71%
Pacheco Mendez R.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Shapovalov D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.6+288 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.4Hard Elo 1487
8.1Overall Elo 1771
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 1526
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
80
100

Shapovalov D.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Pacheco Mendez R.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
18°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 95%

Draw